Nauscopio Scipiorum

Para un inversor particular estar en bolsa en estos momentos es un SUICIDIO. Mejor esperar a que escampe para volver; no seremos los primeros pero tampoco los últimos. En fin, allá cada cual.

TELEGRAPH.co.uk RBS issues global stock and credit crash alert

The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks.

"A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared", said Bob Janjuah, the bank's credit strategist.

A report by the bank's research team warns that the S&P 500 index of Wall Street equities is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1050 by September as "all the chickens come home to roost" from the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets.

Such a slide on world bourses would amount to one of the worst bear markets over the last century.

"I do not think I can be much blunter. If you have to be in credit, focus on quality, short durations, non-cyclical defensive names".

"Cash is the key safe haven. This is about not losing your money, and not losing your job," said Mr Janjuah, who became a City star after his grim warnings last year about the credit crisis proved all too accurate...

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LEAP/E2020 GEAB N°26 is available! LEAP/E2020 Summer 2008 Alert – July-December 2008: The world plunges into the heart of the global systemic crisis

...In the next semester indeed, all the components of the crisis (financial, monetary, economic, strategic, social, political… ones) will converge at the height of their intensity (1).

1. A Dollar in distress (EUR 1 = USD 1.75 at the end of 2008): Panic-fear of a US currency and economy collapse eats into the American collective psyche.
2. Global financial system: An impossible requirement –placing Washington under international trusteeship– provokes the system's break.
3. European Union: The periphery sinks into the recession, the Eurozone only slows down.
4. Asia: The «double whammy» inflation/export-collapse.
5. Latin America: Difficulties increase but growth remains steady in most parts of the region, Mexico and Argentina in crisis.
6. Arab world: Pro-Western regimes go adrift / 60 percent risk of socio-political explosion on Egypt-Morocco axis.
7. Iran: 70 percent probability of an attack by October 2008 confirmed.
8. Banks/Speculative bubbles: When bubbles collide.